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@here we are training the data in JEV as we just get so much hallucination from GPT. Sorry for the delay, I'm manually fixing today update and it will be posted in acouple of hours. The new JEV is half trained, but we need a couple more iterations for issues and get it into a nice format. Sorry for the delay.
The market has all pulled back today with lots of calls closed, SPX is stronger than it's proxies.
MAG7 support and reasonably strong
Semis weakening and becoming bearish, though SOXX looking okay
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-10-05 Monday update
MARA building some squeezy again <@682191093122727969> https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-10-05&id=4453
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-10-02 Friday update
π: 1
@here Be wary the market is removing longs and increasing defensive positioning, but today the VIX is red which is positive for the index
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-10-01
NDBuy
JD
<@1174736052502667288> that AMAT chart swung long big time 21 Sept after OPEX, sorry for not having faith in the NDBuy signal π«£
π₯: 1
This is today
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This was the June two days out
RSI is getting close to reset, over sold. So ask me to check again into the close tomorrow
Good short but keep it small
OI pretty poor too
The hour and 2 hourly look crap
whats ur thoughts on MU earnings on that warning ?
Be wary of the market, it's getting close to a breaking stage, we will get another push or two before mid terms but the oil and rates pushing hard.
Expect a big rout 20-40% is my guess very soon.
It's not there yet, coming soon @here
[Market update 24 Sept @her](https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-28%20%20Market%20update%2028%20Sept%20@here)
Some ideas from my brother Mark
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-23&id=4186
3. Crypto (Profit-Taking Confirmed)
Technical Signal: BTC overbought early at 5:20 AM EDT, followed by some 5-min and 10-min oversold signals later in the session.
Data Convergence: The options data for BitcoinX (π ), COIN (π ), and MARA (π ) completely confirms the 5:20 AM top. The flow notes: "High-delta calls are being reduced... weaker dark pool interest... distribution." The institutions used that early morning strength to monetize their calls.
The Play: The later 5-min/10-min oversold readings are the market trying to find a floor. Because the structural regime is still long, you can use these oversold dips to scale back in, provided DPI stops falling.
4. SPX (The Dark Pool Floor)
Technical Signal: SPX futures hit oversold at 4:00 AM EDT.
Data Convergence: The SPY (π ) options data noted: "Rising DPI near flat price supports accumulation." Big money used that pre-market oversold technical reading to safely accumulate shares and defend the market from a deeper slide.
π Daily Thesis & Technical Update (Tuesday, Sept 22, 2026)
The Macro Backdrop: The administration continues to run the "Taco" playbookβmaintaining stability and liquidity into the midterm elections. However, today's options data shows a market in technical transition. Institutions are rotating and hedging, meaning the initial post-OPEX explosion we saw on Friday is maturing into a choppier, range-bound environment.
1. Precious Metals: The "Falling DPI" Trap (GLD / SLV)
Technical Signal: Both Gold and Silver futures flashed 10-minute and 15-minute overbought readings simultaneously between 2:00 PM and 3:34 PM EDT.
Data Convergence: This was a textbook fade setup. Our options data for GLD (π ) today specifically flagged: "Falling DPI as price rises... treat the tape as relief within a defensive regime." The structural regimes for both metals remain heavily Short.
The Play: When you get a 15-minute RSI overbought signal combined with falling dark pool accumulation (DPI) inside a structural short regime, you have the highest-probability short trigger.
2. Tech & Semiconductors (The "Embedded Momentum" vs. "Capping")
Technical Signal: NAS100 hit overbought at 10:00 AM EDT and pinned the top 60 band. SOXX 15-min RSI is still firmly overbought from Friday afternoon.
Data Convergence: The options data shows divergence here. QQQ (π’) and SOXX (π’) actually saw rising DPI today, meaning dark pools were accumulating the dip to keep the structural long intact. However, NAS (excluding big tech) and broader SPY options showed heavy call rotation and upside capping.
The Play: SOXX ignoring a 4-day overbought signal is a product of its massive structural long regime (no puts to drag it down). However, the 10:00 AM NAS100 overbought signal perfectly identified where dealers began aggressive upside capping. The move is maturing.
dpi weaker then last couple days but i assume its accumalation
π: 1
lacking a bit of ITM calls tho...
<@751339118973288448> Hi mate, could you take a look at $CLS if you have time, just looked at it one ND and the .5 filter alot of atm closing
Trade 3: Fading MSFT / Big Tech Euphoria (Calendar Spreads)
The Data: MSFT (π΄) is the canary in the coal mine today. The data shows aggressive call liquidation and distribution into the rally. Big Tech (π ) lacks clean call confirmation.
The Thesis: The market doesn't have the organic cash to sustain a massive, straight-line breakout here; dealers are capping the upside.
The Trade: Instead of buying naked calls on Big Tech, this environment favors Calendar Spreads or selling out-of-the-money Call Credit Spreads. You are essentially betting that QQQ/Mag7 will grind sideways and chop around to bleed out option premiums, rather than ripping in a straight line.
Summary for tomorrow: Let the big money finish their profit-taking. Do not chase the Tech/Semicondutor strength up here. Watch Crypto for a base to form, and keep a close eye on IWM to short the top of its artificial bounce.
π― Where the Good Trades are Hiding Right Now
Based on today's data combined with our macro thesis, here are the three cleanest trading setups hiding in the tape:
Trade 1: The "Buy-the-Dip" in Crypto (COIN / IBIT)
The Data: Crypto calls were heavily monetised today, bringing the sector back to Neutral/Transition (π ).
The Thesis: Karsan specifically noted that Crypto has a massive "tech + debasement" tailwind until the midterm elections.
The Trade: This current institutional profit-taking is creating a localized dip. You wait for the DPI to flatline or turn up over the next 48 hours, and you buy the dip in Crypto for the next "squeeze" leg ahead of November.
Trade 2: Shorting the "Widowmaker" Rallies (IWM / Small Caps)
The Data: IWM (π ) shows tactical relief (downside puts were trimmed), but the long-term regime remains firmly structurally Short.
The Thesis: Government liquidity is only flowing to pristine, large-cap tech. Small caps are being starved of capital.
The Trade: Any multi-day relief rally in IWM (Small Caps) is a trap. You use these low-volatility relief bounces to build short positions or buy downside put spreads in IWM, knowing the structural ceiling is made of concrete.
π Journal Update: Post-OPEX Profit Taking & The Hidden Trades (Monday, Sept 21, 2026)
1. The Ground Truth (Today's Data Analysis) If Friday was the great "unclenching" and the start of the squeeze, today was the "Profit-Taking Checkpoint."
Across almost every sector that squeezed on Friday (QQQ, Mag 7, Crypto, Semis), the options data is flashing the exact same warning today: Falling DPI (Dark Pool Indicator) into rising prices.
What this means: Retail and momentum algorithms chased the Friday rally into Monday morning, but institutional "dark pool" money used that price strength to quietly sell and take profits.
The Tech Setup (QQQ, NVDA, META): While the tactical options positioning looks green (puts were liquidated and calls firmed up), the big money is capping the upside. MSFT even turned red (π΄), showing outright bearish distribution and call-cutting against the rally.
Crypto (BitcoinX, MARA, COIN): Downgraded to π today. The data explicitly notes: "Deep call conviction was heavily monetised" and flags a "volatility reset." They took their weekend profits.
Gold (GLD) & Bonds (TLT): Total volatility reset. Both remain in structural short regimes, taking a backseat while the market hashes out this tech rally.
2. Integrating with the Master Thesis This data perfectly aligns with Cem Karsan's "Take it down to take it up" midterm playbook. The administration engineered the weekend "Taco" (the China summit narrative), which caused the massive Friday squeeze. But because this market is fundamentally weak beneath the surface (Wang's equity bubble / Bassman's broken bond market), the institutions don't trust the rally. They squeezed the shorts on Friday, and sold their bags to retail on Monday. We are now in a choppy, transitionary window.
Remember I asked you about AMC before the weekend ππ
<@751339118973288448>
π―: 1
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-18 check out CHWY AMAT etc
@here https://x.com/naked_delta/status/2101601502997647783?s=20 weekend update
π: 1
@here
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-18 Sept 18 OPEX
The Post-OPEX Window (Karsan): Starting next week, the market is exposed to true macroeconomic gravity. Without dealers forced to buy every dip to hedge these expiring options, the structural "window of weakness" opens.
The Gravity (Wang & Bassman): As the OPEX walls vanish, the market must finally digest the realities highlighted by Wang and Bassman: Warshβs "higher for longer" rates, the hidden volatility of negatively convex mortgages, the 6% peacetime deficit, and the commodity inflation shock.
The Playbook: We are watching for the "drip, drip, drip" equity decline to begin next week as the market unpins. We hold hard assets (Gold/Silver) against the geopolitical inflation shock, and wait patiently for the "symbiotic bazooka"βthe coordinated Treasury/Fed liquidity squeezeβto hit once the market gets heavily shorted ahead of the midterms.
The Ground Truth: Today's Verified Option Data @here
Based on your latest OptionCharts pull, the structural magnets for today's massive expiration have shifted upward.
SPX Max Pain: $7,500
Chart Insight: With the SPX closing yesterday at 7,634.88, it is sitting over 130 points above Max Pain. The chart shows a Put-Call OI ratio of 1.38, with massive put concentration below us and a very distinct heavy call wall looming up at 7,700 and 7,800.
NDX Max Pain: $29,200
GLD Max Pain: $399
2. The Actionable Setup for Today (The Magnetic Pull)
Today is the single largest options expiration event of the quarter. Because the SPX (7,634) is currently floating well above its $7,500 Max Pain strike, options dealers conceptually want the market to drift downward into the close today so those upside calls expire worthless.
Expect heavy "pinning" action today. Dealers will likely sell into morning strength to try and drag SPX toward 7,500 and NDX toward 29,200, suppressing any true directional breakouts until the contracts officially settle.
Gold (GLD) is pinned at 399. If GLD breaks away from this magnet while equities are pushed down, it confirms the rotation into hard assets.
3. The Macro Overlay: Karsan, Wang, & Bassman
Once the bell rings today and these heavy option walls (like the 7,700 call wall on SPX) expire, the "leash" comes off the market.
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-15 Sept 15 update
I'm still long silver, expecting a mean reversion today. NQ and ES in descending triangle and flag respectively.
Puts shrank a bit but no huge long yet. Gold and GDX is calling long, I still see a bit further down for the GDX, but maybe there's still another leg up first. definitely a swing leg in progress
Thx mate πππ
π₯: 1
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-14 Market update
<@948192533937283102> https://x.com/naked_delta/status/2099751479070625816?s=20 #GME hi mate π
https://x.com/naked_delta/status/2099289944380653709?s=20 short weekend update Sept 13th
https://x.com/naked_delta/status/2098550355420438747?s=20 Quick wrap Friday close
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-09 Sept 9 update
https://www.nakeddelta.com/stock_watch/?d=2026-09-08 Sept 08 update
Oh sorry shared in the wrong channel π
π€: 1
Did it, shares only. Went big on AI data centres again theyβre having a good day
π₯: 1
Weekend wrap and #GME earnings https://youtu.be/Ew-t1A8sgRM
